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War in 2002: Israeli intelligence

Israeli sources said military intelligence has drafted a report that warns of the increasing likelihood of regional war in 2002. The report said the war could be sparked by either an Israeli offensive against the Palestinian Authority or an escalation in tension along Israel's border with Lebanon.

It was the first time that a military report raised the likelihood of war over the next year. Earlier assessments by military intelligence maintained that such countries as Egypt and Jordan would seek to halt Arab plans for war.

But the military report said that in an Israeli-Palestinian war, Egypt and Jordan could sever diplomatic links with Israel and come under great pressure from their people to declare war against the Jewish state, Middle East Newsline reported.

The report, according to the sources, asserts that Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat maintains control over his people and the war against Israel. Arafat, the report said, plans to continue the 10-month-old war until he achieves significant political gains.

The Israeli assessment, details of which were also broadcast on Israeli radio and television, came as the PA has escalated attacks in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Palestinian gunners fired at the Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo and four homes were damaged. Palestinians also fired mortars at Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip.

"There is a harsh quarrel over the Israeli response," Internal Security Minister Uzi Landau said. Israeli attack helicopters attacked Palestinian security agency headquarters in Rafah on 5 August. Israeli tanks also fired toward Palestinian positions in the Bethlehem and Hebron areas.

For their part, Palestinians said Israeli attack helicopters fired three missiles at the car of Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti. Barghouti escaped the attack near Ramallah as he and his driver heard a helicopter hovering above their car and escaped from the car minutes before a rocket blasted it into pieces. In a related development, the Jerusalem Post reported on 5 August that the United States has agreed to establish a mechanism that would monitor Egypt's use of military technology and its missile cooperation with North Korea. But there is no monitoring of the zionist arsenals which include close to a thousand atomic bombs.
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