Muslim count in UP assembly – 2007

By Haider Abbas 

The Milli Gazette

Abstract: Ever since the start of Hindutva (anti-Muslim) politics in the Hindi belt-UP, since, precisely after the opening of Babri Masjid locks on Feb 1, 1986, Muslims, the second biggest majority in UP have had to face the brunt of anti-Muslim tirades. The two decades has found Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) starting with just 59 seats in 1989 to attain full majority in 1991, followed by a coalition with Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP) in 1995, and, anyhow managing to cling to power until mid-2003. After 2003, Samajwadi Party (SP) came to power and which is the best reservoir of Muslim priorities. 

Since the last parliamentary elections of 2004 there has also been a dominant current of Muslims staking claim for political lead within the secular ambit. Muslims made Awami Front in 2004, on the initiation of Parcham Party of India but it crashed even before the elections. Then, on the invitation of Shahi Imam Ahmed Bukhari-United Democratic Front was made and it failed to take any start. Uttar Pradesh United Democratic Front (UPUDF) under SP Ex MLA Yaqub Qureshi made a beginning and became a partner in the SP rebel Member of Parliament (MP) Raj Babbar’s Jan Marcha. UPUDF, today has one MLA now. 

Muslims seem to have after the 2007 results, not given a second hearing to the call of Muslim secular parties like Muslim Majlis, Indian National League, National Loktantrik Party, Peoples Democratic Front, Momin Conference, UDF and UPUDF. None of the parties, except UPUDF could open an account as Muslims stuck with the SP, BSP, Congress, Janta Dal, JD(U), Rashtirya Lok Dal and Samajwadi Kranti Party (SKD). How Muslims became interfaced with the political permutations, while discarding, Muslim oriented parties and what has been the Muslim Count-an all time high, after the results are now being enumerated and analysed.

The great battle for the Lucknow crown has been done. Samajwadi Party (SP) under Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has bowed down making way for Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) Supremo Mayawati to be sworn in as the fourth time CM. Mayawati has on all the three occasions become CM courtesy Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP). 

The results have been baffling. All the exit-polls fell flat on their face and a new social engineering in the name of Brahmin (Upper Caste) Hindus and Dalits (Untouchables) has formulaised as a new beginning in the UP politics. BSP is led by a Dalit Mayawati. 

Centuries of subjugation and human indignation of Dalits at the hands of Brahmins has been thrown back and both have now unanimously voted for the Dalit oriented party-BSP. Perhaps, June 21, 1995 is a witness to the day when late Kanshi Ram-the founder of BSP had taken the first step to hug the Brahmin oriented party-BJP and had formed the government in UP. Thus, paving way for ‘no set rules for attaining power’. BSP (is) was also, therefore, known dubiously as a party without manifesto. Mayawati has now fully actualised her mentors thesis with an absolute majority of 206 legislatures. UP is house to 403 seats-the highest in the country even after 22 were deducted to the newly formed state Uttranchal. 

The social-enginerring came in the form of 86 Brahmin candidates contesting on BSP tickets. Upper Caste Thakurs stood for 38 seats. And, 40 Brahmins won. 18 Thakurs have won too. Mayawati played her cards well…. On the 89 reserved seats BSP could get the Brahmins transfer their votes and 62 BSP candidates won from the reserved constituencies in UP! 

UP, ironically, also enjoys the unique distinction of nations most populated state and is likewise house to 80 parliamentarians as well. No wonder UP has sent more than half-a dozen-Prime Ministers too. Interestingly, Muslims in UP, also make their highest numeric strength. The official presence of Muslims in UP is 18.5%, although, the unofficial figure is nothing short of 25%. The highest percentge of Muslims in India is in Assam. 

The presence of Muslims throughout UP, understandably, make them a jackpot and every political party finds the chunk as a decisive factor. A mere shift of Muslims in voting pattern can dismantle any political calculation-as what was seen, yet again, in the elections 2007! It is only Muslims which have paved way for the fourth-time swearing in ceremony of Mayawati. 

How Muslims charted the crown for Mayawati, in fact, came out of the cues from the exit-polls results. The Upper Caste controlled media made conscious attempts to anyhow put steam into the already exhausted BJP engine. All exit polls, conspiratorily, therefore, showed that BSP and BJP were to be neck to neck and SP to have been relegated to number three. The objective of the exit-polls was to ‘cry wolf’ in order to streamline the Upper Caste Hindus towards BJP by ‘the fear of (untouchable) BSP’. Upper Caste Hindus, were divided in all BSP, BJP, SP and Congress and knew it very well that BJP (the main Upper Caste Hindu party) was in total disarray-despite all anti-Muslim rhetoric. Upper Caste stuck to the BSP and voted strategically for BSP in reserved constituencies –in exchange to the Brahmins of BSP. BJP anti-Muslims CD episode could not cut any ice. 

SP, however, was found napping and could not thwart the exit-polls malaise. Muslims, the main plank of SP found the tide going tough and changed their strategy, in order to keep BJP at bay-therefore, voted in large numbers, in priority to SP towards BSP. Thus, in return Muslims were able to find 29 Member of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) out of contesting 61 with the BSP denomination-the highest ever! 

SP had fielded 56 Muslims and is now represented by 21 Muslims in the assembly. Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)-run by Ajit Singh came up with 3 Muslims. Uttar Pradesh United Democratic Front (UPUDF) got one and two Muslims won as Independents. Muslims who fared as runners have been most widely divided in BSP and SP too. 17 Muslims came as second on BSP ticket. 21 came second on SP ticket. Congress found six Muslims finishing second, RLD and UPUDF came second on one seat each.

The BSP Muslim candidates, which finished third, are 10. SP got Muslims as third on 9 seats. Congress found presence with 12 seats on third position with a Muslim candidate. RLD made it up with two Muslims. Janta Dal (United), National Loktantrik Party (NLP), Bhartiya Samaj Party (BhSP) and an Independent came as third on one seat each. Muslims which made to the fourth position had Congress on 13 seats, RLD on seven seats, SP on 3 seats, BSP, IMC and Independents on two seats, NLP, Apna Dal, Janta Dal, Samajwadi Kranti Party (SKD), (BhSP), Rashtriya Swantantra Party all on one seat. 

How much importance the Muslim vote has can be understood by the fact that officially Muslims make 18.5% of the population in UP. Notwithstanding the (un) official campaign to slash down the Muslim percentage. It takes first to cut Muslim figures during census, and thereafter, anyhow manipulate the data! But, despite all-the size of Muslims, ironically, forced the Election Commission to direct a list of constituencies, in both assembly and parliament-where Muslims make more than 20% for the sake of getting the voters list to be made in Urdu! Voters lists are made in all regional languages.

The number of constituencies where Muslims make more than 20% in UP are a staggering 130! And, 35 seats out of 80 in parliament too! Thus, if UP is the political capital of India Muslims are the ‘prized political capital’ of UP. There can be no doubt that the road to Delhi goes through Lucknow as UP holds the roost and is the undeniable political meter of the country.
The ‘Muslim Count’ in UP assembly 2007 has been the all time high since independence. Muslims made a figure of 56 with various political denominations. In 2002 Muslim legislatures were 46, and, the number of Muslims who came as runners, this time, have been 47! Many of those who lost have been on a very thin margin. 

The Election Commission had charted out the elections in seven phases. Bundelkhand -21 seats, Avadh -90 seats, Rohilkhand-50 seats, Lower Doab-72 seats, Upper Doab-67 and Purvanchal-103 seats.

The following is the list of Muslim Winners in descending order to their victory margin. The data is based on the election results released – 2007.

The following is the list of Muslim Runners is ascending order to their defeat margin.

Muslims who could retain their seats of 2002 are Rizwan Ahmed (8), Mehboob Ali (9), Iqbal Mehmood (12), Aqeel-ur-Rehman (13), Nawab Kazim Ali Khan (20), Muhammad Azam Khan (21), Sultan Beg (39), Riyaz Ahmed (41), Anis Ahmed Khan (43), Abdul Mannan (68), Irshad Khan (89), Abbas Ali Zaidi (122), Waqar Ahmed Shah (136), Abdul Kalam (160), Mukhtar Ansari (204), Haji Abdul Ansari (227), MM Siddiqui (257), Irfan Solaki (271), Shahid Manzur (377) & Kaukab Hameed (385).

The constituencies where Muslims have made first and second position are

1]  Kundarki (15) where Akbar Husain (BSP) won with 50626 votes. Haji Muhammad Rehman (SP) came second with 41356 votes and Chandra Pal Singh (BJP) came third with 24,727 votes.

2] Rampur (21) constituency found Muhammad Azam Khan winning with 61227 votes. Afroz Ali Khan (Congress) came second with 19719 votes and Anil Kumar (BJP) came third with 15260 votes.

3] Sandila (68) saw Abdul Mannan coming first with 56115 votes. Irhrat Rasul with 53063 came second and Surender Dubey came third (BJP) with 7765 votes.

4] Shahbad (73) got Asif (BSP) with 41247 as firs. Babu Khan (SP) came 37721 and Narendra Pal Singh (BJP) came third with 19424.

5] Soraon (257) had MM Siddiqui (BSP) 38280 winning. M. Ayub (SP) 32739 came second and Sonelal Patel (Apnal Dal) got the third position with 24750

6] Firozabad (335) got the winner as Nasiruddin (BSP) with 42700. Azeem Bhai (SP) came second with 32506 with Raghuwar Dayal (BJP) finishing third with 30980.

7] Salempur (189) got the winner as Chaudhry Fasiha Basheer (SP) with 33844 votes. Marghoob Ahmed Lari (BSP) came second with 24785 votes. Vijay came (BJP) came third with 12875 votes.

8] Dumariyaganj (154) found winner as Taufeeq Ahmed (BSP) with 32626 votes. Kamal Yusuf Malik (SP) came second with 31656 votes. Prem Prakash Jippi (BJP) came third with 28836 votes.

On eight seats Muslims came first & second and BJP finished third on seven of them. Apna Dal finished third one seat.

Constituencies where Muslims finished as second and third candidates are:

1] Baheri (40) where Anjum Rasheed (BSP) 44932 came second. Ataur-Rehman (SP) for 32255 and came thrird and Chatrapal Singh (BJP) won with 53194.

2] Mehmoodabad (60) where Meesam Rizvi (BSP) 67988 came second. Yusuf Ansari got 3803 came third and Narendra Singh (SP) won with 81799 votes.

3] Tulsipur (139) where Mashood Khan (SP) 32751 came second. Noman Zahid got 27716 and came third. Kailashendra Nath Yogi (BJP) with 39250 won.

4] Utraula (141) found Anwar Mahmood coming second with  31,501votes. Samiullah BSP got 18978 votes and Shyam Lal (BJP) won with 37835 votes. .

      Three out of four seats where Muslim fared as second and third were won by BJP and one seat was one by SP

The seats where Muslims make first and third position are

1]  Bijnour (06) where Shahnawaz (BSP) got 61588 votes and Shahid Ali (SP) came third 21826 votes. Bhartendra Singh (BJP) stuck second with 61031 votes.

2] Swartanda (20) where Kazim Ali Khan (SP) got 61227 votes, Yusuf Ali came third with 43857. Shiv Bahadur Saxena of BJP came second with 46621 votes.

3] Leharpur (62) where MJ Ansari (BSP) got first position with 57179. Haji Jalees Ahmed (Congress) got third with 14695 votes and Anil Kumar Verma (SP) came second with 44314 votes.

4] Pihani (72) found Dawood Ahmed (BSP) winning with 51184, Khalid Ghauri came third with 6712 Ashok Vajpayee (SP) came second with 48589 votes.

5] Varanasi North (227) Haji Abdul Ansari (SP) got first with 26544, Rabia Kalam came third as Independent with 17652. Shiv Nath Yadav (BJP) came second with 24345.

6] Kamalganj (295) saw Tahir Husain Siddiqui (BSP) coming first, Jamaluddin Siddiqui came third, Mukesh Rajput (BJP) came second Number of votes cast were unavailable.

7] Agra Cantt (341) saw Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (BSP) winning with 30524, Muhammad Basheer (SP) came second with 17775 votes and Keshav Mehra came second (BJP) 27149

8] Muzaffarnagar (403) made Imran Masud (Independent ) to win with 43835, Ahsanullah (BSP) came third with 36807 , Jagdish Singh Rana (SP) came second with 40152 votes

Constituencies where Muslims made first and fourth position are Sandila, (68) Bhojipura, (38) Rampur, (20) Muradabad Village (18), Sambhal (12), Amroha (9), Bahraich (136), Masauli (126), and Ghaisiri. (138) Whereas, constituencies where Muslims made second and fourth are Rampur (20), Sandila (68,) and Saraswan (398). Constituencies where Muslims made third and fourth position are Amroha (9), Sambhal (12), Muradabad Village (18), Thakurdwara (19) & Badaun (28).

The new cabinet of Mayawati has been announced on May 16, 2007. Naseemuddin Siddiqui, the BSP loyalist, is the only Muslim cabinet minister. The rumblings over Muslims being under-represented to Brahmins have also started. The three time Muslim MLAs on BSP ticket have been given the ‘Minister of State’ status, whereas, the newly converted Brahmins are making merry with plum cabinet ministerial posts! Even twice won BSP winners like Ghulam Waris Ali and Irshad Khan have found no mentioning while Brahmin MLAs, like Nakul Dubey and Daddan Mishra, who joined BSP six-months back have been given independent state ministerial portfolios! Anees Ahmed Khan (Independent Charge), Akbar Husain, Abdul Mannan and Sajid Islam Ansari have got the state minister status.

How long will this honeymoon of Brahmin and Dalit go is only time would tell but definitely Satish Chandra Misra-the Brahmin Chanakya of this new chemistry has pocketed the proverbial Deputy Chief Minister’s post and has had his day. He has been attached to CM.

In case, if Mayawati, goes down in the Taj Heritage Corridor case, on corruption charges, then-would the same Brahmin also run the Dalit party? No doubt this culmination in UP is just like as if Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein-the political party of Irish Republican Army-in Ireland- have come together.

But how long will the snake and the mongoose stay in the same grass is for everyone to guess.

The writer is an attorney based in Lucknow High Court. He writes on Muslim socio-politico issues. He can be reached on rizvisha4u@yahoo.com

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