BJP confusing people between correlation and causality

At the very outset it is important to understand the tactics of the present ruling party which has come into power on the basis of a so-called “development agenda”. BJP as the ruling party of India has several times reiterated that its agenda development and reviving the economy. In order to achieve this target Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rigorously talked about reforms, about curtailing inflation, controlling prices, particularly of oil. This, according to BJP, is an important task which the government has successfully achieved in recent months. A thorough analysis of the achievement of BJP with respect to economy and development needs to be undertaken. BJP has been casually talking about economic issues and how they are linked with the happenings in the global economic environment. It appears that BJP government is benefitted by the downturn and fluctuations in the business cycles of the world. For instance, if we take the example of petrol prices, since a few months BJP has been claiming credit for curtailing and minimising petrol and diesel prices (though now the situation has changed). When it is taken as a global issue it is clear that all throughout the world the crude prices have been going down per barrel. It was not the magic wand of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his allies that has curtailed diesel or petrol prices. It is actually the global economic environment which has resulted in fall in the crude oil prices and petrol and diesel prices in India. BJP has again and again used correlation and has confused it with causality for the masses. While correlation has been used by BJP in the sense that whatever has been achieved by Indian economy due to positives in the global economic environment is attributed to the endeavours of the Prime Minister, instead of checking for causality.

Another issue to be examined is that of FDI. It’s a global phenomenon and all multi-lateral institutions including WTO, World Bank, UNCTAD etc. have been working and pushing for FDI in the emerging economies. The global economy gets a boost. This has been the policy of UNCTAD, IMF etc. and that’s why these multilateral organisations work to increase the limits of FDI in the Indian economy. Whether its NDA or UPA, it is imperative for India to pass FDI bills because it has to be considered that India does not have appropriate domestic investment. Therefore, it is correlation and not causality.

Mustafa Tayyab
Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh

This article appeared in The Milli Gazette print issue of 16-31 July 2015 on page no. 11

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