International

US President Trump and expectations of Muslim World

The world politics after Trump election is to have expected sharp changes, in the same direction as set by the victory of many nationalist or conservative leaders in Israel, Iran, Russia, India, and other countries in Europe. The new world order is waiting to emerge as these leaders compete and cooperate with each other. More importantly Arab and Islamic World are occupied by several violent crisis and instability starting from Syria, Iraq and Yemen crisis, to that of India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, ISIS, ISIL and Iranian Nuclear issue. All these issues directly affect the Muslim World, but the Syrian crisis affected almost every actor in this terrain. The Arab World has landed in trouble since 2010 due to Arab Spring, which was started from Tunisia via Libya, Egypt, and Yemen that had ideological repercussions badly in Syria. In the last six years of turmoil mainly faced by the Arab World, we witnessed the uncounted loss of human life, migration of people, wide spread suffering. It is estimated that till now more than 3,00, 000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began with anti-government protests in March 2011 so far. The other disturbing fact is that the unique places like Damascus, Homs, Hamas and Aleppo become the debris of destruction in West Asia. Factually, Assad’s old friend Iran, Shia group Hezbollah of Lebanon and Damascus elderly friend Russia blindly backed the brutal Assad regime, despite the continued civilian exodus, bloodshed and massacre. The rebel group led by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar maintained the Syrian situation balanced through strategic support. The US is also involved in Syrian crisis, but it has its own agenda, which is still not visible for the pro-Assad and anti-Assad camp. But the most surprising is the silent role of Israel as a spectator. It inherits a history that ruined neighbour one by one through its policies. Is it not looking suspicious that enemy is free and friends are fighting within.

After taking the oath as the President of the United States, Trump is going to face a difficult situation due to the region’s complexities, volatile nature and fragmented behaviour. Since US policy which is branded as a support system of Tel Aviv since its creation, Trump will be a new Messiah for Israel and right wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as it is already seen. Last month the US unpredictably abstained in the UN General Assembly from voting on a resolution against the Israeli illegal settlements in West Bank and did not use the veto. Later, the US Ambassador to the UN, Mr. Samantha Power said that the move doesn’t signal diminished US support for Israel. The Obama administration had given a new package of $3.8 billion a year military help to Israel for over the next decade which will be $38 billion. This pact is a mark of two nations close alliances despite the difference on the issues like Iranian nuclear issue, etc. and so on. This is one of the biggest packages of military assistance in its history of the US and has the potential to change the geopolitical situation, especially with an increase in ‘arms race’ in the region.

The situation has become bad to worse since last two years and led to the migration of Syrian people in Europe via land and sea route; and it was also not less than a catastrophe due to many incidents of boat collapse and other reasons of causality. Those who reached different parts of the Europe also faced a lot of problems with police and other law enforcement agencies. They faced freezing temperature with no tents and shortage of food for several days. Barring these social aspects, political aspects were more curious as they didn’t have their collective representative or spokesperson till now. The role of the UN also looks dubious as of now, which hardly acted upon such disaster.

Due to the influx of refugees in Europe, sudden political storm has changed the whole narrative of social crisis into a political and security issue across the Europe, and it may also be attributed to their Islamophobic symptoms. Some of the European countries tightened their borders and even suspended train schedules to prevent the surge of refugees from reaching their shores. Some Syrians were settled across the Europe by the respected government's application, like Germany, Sweden, Finland, Austria, Hungary and Italy, through asylum application. Finally, most of the migrants came back to Turkey after a deal of EU to Turkey, to settle down all these people in Turkey and then EU assured an amount of  $3.3 billion as promised in October. The deal also closed European borders to migrants. Currently, more than 2.7 million refugees are registered in Turkey and 1 million people had to flee to Europe through Bulgaria by land and later through Greece by sea (data of refugees may be varied).

Along these developments, sensitive issues like India-Pakistan issue, Iranian Nuclear issue and Israel-Palestine issue also rocked the scene and it has to do with parochial national interest of the particular states and their respective positions. Finally, the issue of Israel-Palestine longed since the First World War and Balfour declaration of 1917 provided a new shape to terrain. Israeli aggressions against the Palestine continue unabated and creation of new settlements on Palestinian land, growing like an uncontrolled tumour. The Muslim World is hardly able to play as an arbitrator’s role, since they lost the opportunity to uphold the power and unity in their own domain. Even the Arab League and the OIC also not have any clear cut plans nor does they have any intention to solve this due to their own differences on the ground.

In such circumstances, the Arab and the larger Muslim World witnessed the US interventions. Since the Second World War, Washington on most of the issues pertaining to these areas. Pakistan is also not stable, the proxy war with India goes on, and their internal rift with the FATA region also got disturbed, their relations with Afghanistan is also not good. The Iranian nuclear threat  is budding as one of the biggest game changer in the GCC countries, especially with respect to Saudi Arabia.

The Obama administration tenure is over, and it left many unattended issue, which will prop up very shortly. Trump’s policies will bring arbitration at various levels, including diplomatic and social plain. The Muslim World no doubt have more positive lineage towards the US rather than China or Russia, irrespective of the UN dynamics and US foreign policy dynamics. But future depends on the political and policy formulation and of course changing paradigms. Hope the world will be in ‘normal shape’ with or without Trump.

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