Opinions

Modi, why did you kill our boys?: Gujarat poll survey

This time it is going to be different. Modi has messed up big-time. He is going to be punished. The survey below was built by talking to more than 10,000 respondents. I posted the first, 'guerrilla opinion poll' in October 2017. 
 
This one covers 84 seats out of 89 that went to poll yesterday. 
 
If you compare this survey with the vote pattern in Gujarat civic body polls of 2015, it will not come as a surprise. 
 
Compared to 2010, in Zila and Taluka Panchayats, BJP's 2015 vote share dipped by 5-7%; Congress' vote went up by 3-5%. 
 
But the game changer for 2017 are perhaps, the results of 56 municipalities, leaving aside the six big municipal corporations. 
 
Standing between the big cities and small towns/village Talukas, these very Gujarati, semi-urban centers--with an unusually high rate of literacy/mobile phone retainership compared to rest of India--were the nerve centers of BJP marka neo-communal brand of politics. In big Gujarati cities, the Muslim was ghettoised. But it was in municipalities like Navsari, Botad, Kheda and Godhra that 'he' was 'shown his place'. 
 
In 2015, here, in the municpalities, while BJP's vote share fell from 47.7 to 44.67%, Congress registered a 10% gain from 29.59 to 39.59%! Following the Patidar agitation, Congress not only covered the 5% gap; it seems to have gained 2-3%! 
 
The difference will be felt in big cities as well. 
 
I don't know how this is going to play out on 18th December. Losing is not an option for Narendra Modi. The Republic will be at stake. 
 
For BJP, nothing is working. Hate, misinformation, communal polarisation, media autocracy, ghastly ISIS type, filmed lynching and burning, use of liberals to speak up in Modi's favour, everything was tried. But the people have made up their mind to teach Modi/BJP a lesson. There are many issues, farmer distress, unemployment, demonetisation, GST. 
 
But, if you ask me, the one, the most important issue, was Police  firing on Patidar youths...BJP had no answer to the question:  सब ठीक है...पर हमारे बच्चों को क्यूं मारा (Why did you kill our boys)...
 
Here are the findings: 
 
SAURASHTRA: 48 SEATS
 
Surendranagar District
 
Total seats: 5
 
2012: BJP-4, Congress-1 
(BJP-Dasada-SC, Wadhwan, Chotila, Dhrangadhra; Congress-Limdi)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-2
 
Rajkot District
 
Total Seats: 8
 
2012: BJP-4, Congress-4
(BJP-Rajkot West, Rajkot South, Rajkot Rural-SC, Gondal; Congress-Rajkot East, Jasdan, Jetpur, Dhoraji)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-6, BJP-2
 
Morbi District
 
Total Seats: 3
 
2012: BJP-2, Congress-1
(BJP-Morbi, Tankara; Congress-Wankaner)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-2, BJP-1
 
Jamnagar District
 
Total Seats: 5
 
2012: BJP-3, Congress-2
 
(BJP-Kalvad-SC, Jamnagar South, Jamjodhpur, Khambalia, Dwarka; Congress-Jamnagar North, Jamnagar Rural)
 
2017 (projected):  Congress-3, BJP-2
 
Devbhoomi Dwarika District
 
Total Seats: 2
 
2012: BJP-2, Congress-0
(BJP-Khambalia, Dwarika)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-1, BJP-1
 
Junagadh District
 
Total Seats: 5
 
2012: BJP-3, Congress-1, GPP-1
(BJP- Junagadh, Keshod, Mangrol; Congress- Manavadar; GPP- Visavadar)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-4, BJP-1
 
Somnath Giri District
 
Total seats: 4
 
2012: BJP-1, Congress-3
(BJP-Kodinar-SC; Congress-Somnath, Talala, Una)
 
2017 (projected): Congress: 4, BJP-0
 
Amreli District
 
Total Seats:5 
 
2012: BJP-2, Congress-2, GPP-1
(BJP-Savarkundla, Rajaula; Congress-Amreli, Lathi; GPP-Dhari)
 
2017 (projected):  Congress-4, BJP-1, 
 
Bhavnagar District
 
Total Seats: 7
 
2012: BJP-6, Congress-1
(BJP-Mahuva, Talaja, Gariadhar, Bhavnagar Rural, Bhavnagar East, Bhavnagar West; Congress-Palitana)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-5, BJP-2
 
Botad District
 
Total Seats: 2 
 
 2012: BJP-2, Congress-0
(BJP-Botad, Gadhada-SC)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-1, BJP-1
 
Porbandar District
 
Total Seats: 2
 
2012: BJP-1, NCP-1
(BJP-Porbandar, NCP-Kutiyana)
 
2017 (projected): Congress: 2
 
SAURASHTRA GRAND TOTAL
 
2012: BJP-30, Congress-15, GPP-2, NCP-1
 
2017 (projected): Congress-35, BJP-13
 
SOUTH GUJARAT: 37 SEATS
 
Broach District
 
Total Seats: 5
 
2012: BJP-4, JD(U)-1
(BJP-Jambusar, Vagra, Bharuch, Ankaleshwar, JDU-Jhagadia-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress plus allies-3, BJP-2
 
Surat District 
 
Total Seats: 18
 
2012: BJP-16, Congress-2
(BJP-Olpad, Mangrol-ST, Kamrej, Surat East, Surat North, Varachcha Road, Karanj, Limbayat, Udhna, Majura, Katargam, Surat West, Choryasi, Bardoli-SC, Mahuva-ST, Nizar-ST; Congress-Mandvi-ST, Vyara-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-11, BJP-7
 
Valsad District
 
Total Seats: 5
 
2012: BJP-3, Congress-2
(BJP-Valsad, Pardi, Umergaon-ST; Congress-Dharampur-ST, Kaprada-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-3, BJP-2
 
Narmada District
 
Total Seats: 2
 
2012: BJP-2, Congress-0; 
(BJP-Nandod-ST, Debiapada-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress plus allies: 2
 
Navsari District 
 
Total Seats: 4
 
2012: BJP-3 Congress-1 
(BJP-Jalalpore, Navsari, Gandevi-ST; Congress-Vansda-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-2, BJP-2
 
Tapi District
 
Total Seats: 2 
 
2012: BJP-1, Congress-1 
(BJP-Nizar; Congress-Vyara)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-2, BJP-0
 
Dang District
Total Seats: 1
 
2012: Congress-1, BJP-0
(Congress-Dang-ST)
 
2017 (projected): Congress-1 
 
SOUTH GUJARAT GRAND TOTAL
 
2012: BJP-30, Congress-7
 
2017 (projected): Congress: 24, BJP-13
 
SAURASHTRA+SOUTH GUJARAT GRAND TOTAL
 
Total Seats: 85
 
2012: BJP-60, Congress-22, Others-3
 
2017 (projected): Congress-59, BJP-26
 
CONGRESS NEEDS 33-34 SEATS IN THE NEXT PHASE TO END 22 YEARS OF BJP RULE IN GUJARAT...

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